Who's Footing this Bill?

Lots of eyes will be on this game. The Bills have been nothing short of a powerhouse all season and have been led by Josh Allen who has been playing exceptional all year. The Broncos just squeaked their way into the playoffs but are not as much of a dark horse as they appear to be. The outcome of this game will be contingent upon a couple things for both teams. Let’s break it down.

Denver is finally back in the playoffs. They have not been here since 2015, where they would eventually end up winning the Super Bowl. They have had an up and down year and finished the year on a little bit of a skid. They ended up beating the Chiefs backups 38-0 to secure their playoff spot but lost two straight prior to that. Now that they’re here, but they’re going to need to be on their Ps and Qs if they are to advance against Buffalo. This will all be dependent upon how their rookie Bo Nix plays. When Nix plays well, they usually win the game. When he is inaccurate and turns the ball over, they usually lose. They have pieces though. Between their running back group in Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime, they can rip off some runs and give you a headache in the run game. They also have a burner at receiver in Marvin Mims Jr., and of course, there is Courtland Sutton who is having one of his best years to date. He finished the season with +1,000 yards receiving and 8 TDs. This is before getting to the best part of their team, which is their defense. Led by Vance Joseph, this Broncos defense has been the backbone of this team. They finished the season ranked 7thoverall, bottom half in pass defense, and 3rd in run defense. The rankings don’t matter, this defense has won games and done things for this team that can’t be measured in stats. But here’s a stat, the Broncos allowed the second least number of TDs all season with 32. Nik Bonitto has been one of their driving forces in his third year out of Oklahoma, finishing he season with 13.5 sacks and 48 total tackles. And don’t forget about Pat Surtain, the best corner in the league. The key for Denver will be keeping their defense sharp against this firestorm of an offense, as well as Nix’s performance. They must be able to hold off Allen and the Bill’s offense, and Bo Nix must be more precise with his passing. Denver needs a career game from Nix, on top of a career game from their defense.

Josh Allen and the Bills will not be changing their gameplan. They will not be looking to add extra elements or be different from how they were all season. They have had a winning formula all season, and they are most certainly going to implement it this game. What is their formula? More or less, it is letting Josh Allen thrive. Let him make plays, extend plays, find other players to make plays, it doesn’t matter. If he’s healthy and leading this offense, this team can compete with anyone in the league. Allen finished the season with 3,731 passing yards, for 28 TDs and just 6 INTs. He also accumulated 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs. That’s just absurd. Not many other ways to describe it. But Allen is not alone. He is able to work the ball to his entourage of receivers, made up of guys like Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and many more. Not one receiver on the Bills has over 1,000 yards receiving this year, but when you work as a team and spread the ball, good things happen. James Cook even got himself over 1,000 yards rushing this season, along with 18 total TDs. In contrast, their defense is where they tend to get beat on the rare occasion. They rank 12th in rush defense, and are 11th in the league in points allowed, but their pass and overall defense falls down the rankings. For the Bills to win, they, like the Broncos’ strategy this game, will need to shut down the opposing offense entirely. By hindering Denver from having offensive production, you put them back on their heels and force their defense to stop Allen. Which is really hard to do. If they are able to shut down Nix and Denver, and Josh Allen does Josh Allen things, this game will be over relatively quickly. Don’t count the Broncos out, but they’re going to need their best game of the year. I like the Bills 28-21.

POSTGAME:

It was a real long-shot, but the Broncos had a chance early to keep this game completive. It was competitive all first half, they were only down 7-10 at the end of the half, and if Will Lutz hits that 50-yard FG, the game would’ve been tied at half. But if an ant had wings it would be a bird. The bottom line is that the Broncos, like the Chargers, were unable to convert their opportunities. As we mentioned in the pregame analysis, the Broncos would go as far as Bo Nix. That was partially true, as Nix played a great game as a rookie starting at QB in the playoffs. He was 13/22 for 144 pass yards and 1 TD. Obviously, we’d like the numbers to be higher, but Nix was playing well. The stats don’t show certain things, like his ability to extend plays, keeping calm under pressure, and not turning the ball over. Ultimately, they fell short, but this team felt good about where they were this year. They’ll be back next year.

The Bills take on the Ravens next week. As mentioned prior, this game is going to be one every NFL fan will be viewing. The dominant Bills at home, or the dynamic Ravens away in Buffalo? I’m really excited, I’ll save analysis for the pregame analysis coming this week, but this is about as even of a match you could conjure.